[SMM monthly Outlook] bulls' sentiment has accumulated for a long time, and the festival will push the price of nickel up.

SMM9 March 29: in addition to the first quarter of this year, September is also not very friendly to Shanghai Nickel. By the end of daytime trading on September 29, Shanghai Nickel owners had even quoted 113850 yuan / ton, down 9230 yuan / ton, or 7.4%, compared with the closing price of 123080 yuan / ton on September 1. This month, Shanghai Nickel fell below the 120000 mark, during which time it approached 110000 yuan, falling to 110420 yuan per ton.

At the beginning of September, US stocks fell sharply, and the continued rebound in the dollar index led to collective pressure on the non-ferrous metals market. although the dollar index fell somewhat in mid-September, the strong dollar hit again in late September, and the dollar index recently stabilized above 94. Some analysts pointed out that before the November 3 US election, the market volatility will intensify, and the demand for the dollar will increase as a result. Emerging market currency volatility has soared as the resurgence of the novel coronavirus epidemic has raised investor concerns about global economic growth. Some Fed officials are sceptical about the pace of economic recovery, helping to boost the dollar, even though the outlook has been further blurred by the most divisive US presidential election in decades.

At present, spot transactions show that today's futures nickel still maintains a weak fluctuation around 113000 yuan / ton. more traders in the spot market have stopped quoting and have taken early vacations. in terms of demand, there are few buyers, and only some traders make inquiries for Jinchuan nickel downstream. Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 11 contract quoted 300 to 150 yuan / ton, individual holders continue to be low in the quotation, but the turnover is limited, and there is little demand for the release of the terminal. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 11 contract rose 2200-2500 yuan / ton, the spot in Shanghai is scarce, most traders clear the inventory, symbolically quote the moving price, so the market continues to rise. Due to the continuous production of manufacturers during the holiday, Jinchuan nickel supply is expected to ease, so the recent willingness of traders to accept goods is low, the transaction is limited. Nickel beans to 11 contracts offer about 600 yuan / ton, the same weak supply and demand.

Recently, due to the Federal Reserve did not further "release water", superimposed overseas epidemic fermentation, the trend of the dollar rose sharply, resulting in major metals under pressure down, nickel prices also showed a volatile decline structure at the end of September. As the domestic futures market is about to enter the holiday holiday, the trend of Lunni during this period will directly affect the direction of the post-holiday Shanghai nickel market. SMM believes that from a fundamental point of view, the nickel market is strong in many factors: at present, the nickel mine is still strongly priced, and after the Philippines enters the rainy season in the fourth quarter, the supply will continue to be tight; while nickel pig iron is supported by raw materials and continues to stalemate with downstream bargaining; pure nickel as a raw material after the improvement in economy, superimposed pre-festival stock factors, electrolytic nickel spot trading active, gradually reduced inventory. The only empty factor in the fundamentals is that the consumption performance of downstream stainless steel is lower than expected in the case of high production, resulting in a certain base.

At this point at the end of September, there are many uncertainties in macro factors, and after the domestic holiday, the mood of capital risk aversion is strong, so the nickel market shows a trend of building a weak bottom. At the beginning of October, European and American markets are about to usher in a number of economic data, there is still a demand for repair after the overfall of safe haven assets such as gold and silver, and the Fed still needs to further expand its table to inject liquidity into the market, so it is difficult to judge the sustained strength of the dollar index. SMM expects the nickel market to remain weak until the end of the month, but Lunni is expected to be the first to rebound during the National Day period, while the long-accumulated bullish sentiment in Shanghai will also push the nickel market up after the holiday. Forecast range: Lunni 14300-15000 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Nickel 112000-118000 yuan / ton.